Truckers as Leading Indicator Show Stable U.S. Economic Growth | Anna-Louise Jackson and Anthony Feld

A driver walks past parked trucks. Photographer: Alan Petersime/Bloomberg

June 14, 2012 (Bloomberg) -- Rising truck shipments show the U.S. economic expansion is intact, even amid concerns that a slowdown in retail sales and Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis could stall growth.

Two measures of trucking activity signal the industry remains steady and has even “firmed up” since mid-May, according to Ben Hartford, an analyst in Milwaukee with Robert W. Baird & Co. The data complement anecdotal information from carriers that freight demand ended May on a strong note after more weakness than anticipated earlier in the month, he said.

“Trucking trends are reflective of an economic environment that is stable, not deteriorating,” Hartford said.

The for-hire truck-tonnage index rose 2.8 percent in April from a year earlier, up from 0.2 percent the prior month, marking 29 months of growth, based on data from the American Trucking Associations. The economy has never contracted without tonnage turning negative first, so the truck figures are a leading indicator, providing the “first signal” of a slump, said Thom Albrecht, an analyst in Richmond, Virginia, with BB&T Capital Markets.

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