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Recession Signs Grow as Winnebago Leads U.S. RV Drop (Jeff Green)

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  By Jeff Green

  Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Winnebago Industries Inc., Thor Industries Inc. and other U.S. recreational-vehicle makers will probably say shipments fell in 2007 for the first time in six years, a sign the U.S. economy may be headed for a recession.

  For the past three decades, deliveries of motor homes and travel trailers have dropped before each decline in the U.S. economy, giving the $15 billion industry a reputation as a bellwether. As the U.S. housing slump worsens, gasoline prices rise and consumer confidence wanes, RV sales are forecast to slide this year and next.

  Recreational vehicles ``are at the swing end of discretionary spending because no one needs an RV, and certainly no one needs a new RV,'' said Ron Muhlenkamp, whose Muhlenkamp & Co. fund manages about $1.8 billion including shares of Winnebago, the biggest motor-home maker, and Thor, the maker of Airstream trailers. Muhlenkamp started unloading shares in 2006.

  A University of Michigan forecast for the RV industry in June predicted 2008 sales would rise 3.5 percent; a revised version of the forecast today swung to a 4.8 percent decline. The revised 2008 outlook was released during the industry's largest trade show, which began today in Louisville, Kentucky.

READ MORE: Bloomberg 

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  • Created
    Tuesday, November 27 2007
  • Last modified
    Wednesday, November 06 2013
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