As a result of the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, lenders will -- gasp! -- once again require down payments, filling the market with unsold homes and driving down prices.
By Bill Fleckenstein -- MSN Money
March 15, 2007 -- The unraveling of the housing market, the magic bullet that "fixed" our unraveled equity bubble, is the news. Slowly, the popular press is waking up to what I've been discussing for many months now.
Dropping like subprime flies
Essentially, the subprime mortgage industry -- which lends to consumers with credit issues -- is gone. Alt A lenders, those one rung up the ladder creditwise, will be next. Together, they comprise approximately 40 percent of the market. If you were to go down the list of what were once the top 25 subprime lenders, you'd see that only a handful are still standing at this point. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency recently enacted rules that, in essence, require lenders who provide mortgages using federally guaranteed depositor funds to behave in a somewhat intelligent fashion. Subprime lender Fremont General (FMT, news, msgs), by its own admission, owes its demise in part to that rule change.
What we don't yet know is the degree of credit-related insanity, which we'll only discover when the tide goes out -- the criminal investigation of New Century Financial (NEW, news, msgs) being one example of the rot that has already been revealed. We also don't yet know the ramifications for the dark-matter universe in collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), credit default swaps (CDSs) and other derivatives-related exotica. But I think it's safe to say that the surprises will be negative -- and large.
This credit collapse is an unequivocally important event. Because, as I've been writing, the ability of anybody with a pulse to get a loan for any amount is what drove the real estate market, and the real estate market is what drove the economy. Sometime in the next three to six months, the real-estate market will basically just freeze up. Of course, inventories are going to explode and prices will eventually drop rather dramatically as a vicious cycle feeds on itself.
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