Protective barriers surrounding the Svartsengi area in early November 2024. (Photo: The Icelandic Met Office / Bjarki Kaldalóns Friis)
No sign of subsidence around Svartsengi
Eruption at the Sundhnúkur crater row remains likely
Updated 18 March at 13:00 UTC
Magma continues to accumulate, and its volume beneath Svartsengi has never been greater since the eruption sequence began in December 2023
The most likely scenario is that this magma accumulation phase will end with a magma intrusion and an eruption, initially occurring in the area between Sundhnúkur and Stóra-Skógfell
Seismic activity has been gradually increasing over the past few weeks, indicating that pressure at the eruption site is rising
An eruption could begin with very little warning
The hazard assessment remains unchanged and is valid until March 25
There has been a clear increase in seismic activity near the Sundhnúkur crater row on a weekly basis, except for the last week of February, which was likely due to weather conditions. The seismic station that previously caused measurement disturbances has been corrected. Earthquake activity continues in the same location as in the lead-up to previous eruptions—between Sundhnúkur and Stóra-Skógfell—where magma first reached the surface in six of the seven eruptions since December 2023.
The image shows earthquake activity around the Sundhnúkur crater row from the last eruption on December 8, 2024, until today, March 18. The map displays the location of earthquakes during this period. Note that the positioning of earthquakes east of the Sundhnúkur crater row still needs to be corrected. The lava field from the last eruption is shown in gray, while dark red lines indicate the location of eruption fissures from eruptions since December 2023. The upper graph shows earthquake magnitudes over time, while the lower graph illustrates the weekly earthquake count, which has been increasing recently.
Deformation measurements (GPS measurements) indicate that uplift continues, although at a slightly reduced rate. There are no signs of subsidence in the area around Svartsengi, according to GPS data and InSAR observations. Magma continues to accumulate beneath Svartsengi, and its volume has never been greater since the eruption sequence at the Sundhnúkur crater row began in December 2023.
The graph shows 8-hour solutions for the GPS station THOB, located at Þorbjörn. The data represent movements in the north, east, and vertical directions (top, middle, bottom).
The hazard assessment has been updated but remains unchanged and is valid until March 25, unless conditions change.
Updated 17 March at 17:30 UTC
Magma continues to accumulate, and its volume beneath Svartsengi has never been greater since the eruption sequence began in December 2023
The most likely scenario is that this magma accumulation phase will end with a magma intrusion and an eruption, which would first propagate in the area between Sundhnúkur and Stóra-Skógfell
Seismic activity has increased in recent days, indicating that pressure at the eruption site is rising
An eruption could begin with very little warning
The hazard assessment remains unchanged and is valid until March 18
No change has been observed in the location of seismic activity at the Sundhnúkur crater row compared to the lead-up to previous eruptions
On March 11, the Icelandic Meteorological Office reported changes in the location of earthquakes over the past few weeks, with seismic activity appearing to be positioned several hundred meters further east than in the lead-up to previous events. Initially, these earthquakes were thought to be triggered by increased pressure from magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi.
Meteorological Office experts have since conducted a high-resolution analysis of earthquake locations. Earthquake locations are determined using signals from multiple seismometers in a given area, meaning that interference from a single instrument can affect the final location calculations. The influence of each seismic station in the region on the earthquake positioning results was analyzed, revealing an issue with one instrument that caused the seismic activity to appear farther east than before.
Further fault analysis and corrections are underway. As of Friday, March 14, earthquake review procedures have been temporarily adjusted by excluding data from the instrument responsible for the miscalculation.
Seismic activity is therefore still occurring in the same area as before the previous eruptions—between Sundhnúkur and Stóra-Skógfell—where magma first reached the surface in six of the seven eruptions since December 2023.
The map shows the location of earthquakes around the Sundhnúkur crater row over the past 14 days. Red circles indicate the locations of earthquakes recorded in the last three days, following the temporary adjustment of data processing due to interference. These earthquakes are positioned on or very near eruption fissures that have opened since December 2023, represented by dark red lines. Other colors indicate the locations of earthquakes before the data processing adjustment.
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