Raised hazard levels in an updated hazard assessment
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Updated 27. February at 13:00 UTC
Model calculations suggest that about 7.6 million m3 of magma has been recharged within the Svartsengi reservoir. Considering precursors of previous volcanic eruptions in the Sundhnúkar crater row, the likelihood of a volcanic eruption increases once the volume of magma reaches 8 – 13 million m3. If magma accumulation continues at the same rate, the amount should reach the lower limit on 27 Feb.
Seismic activity has increased slightly since the past weekend and has been most prominent just east of Mt. Sýlingarfell. The seismic activity is in the eastern tip of the magma reservoir that is centered beneath the Svartsengi-Þórbjörn area. The current seismicity is similar to that observed days before previous volcanic eruptions in the area.
Therefore, the Iceland Meteorological Office has updated the hazard assessment for the unrest area. An increased likelihood of a volcanic eruption and related hazards affects the assessment. Hazard levels have been raised in several zones. Even though the color of Zone 4 – Grindavík - remains unchanged, the hazards there have increased due to the possibility of lava flows. The same goes for Zone 1 – Svartsengi.
No significant deformation within Grindavík has been detected by GNSS or satellite data. It is however likely that new faults will be revealed when snow melts or precipitation causes soil, which might be covering faults, to be washed away.
If an eruption occurs, scientists estimate that magma will most likely propagate from the reservoir beneath the Svartsengi-Þórbjörn region towards Sundhnúkur crater row, resulting in lava fountaining and lava flows in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell. The primary signal of ascending magma is a sudden increase in seismic activity with many localized, small-magnitude earthquakes. Considering the previous volcanic eruptions in the area, an eruption could start with very little warning (less than 30 minutes), depending on where magma reaches the surface on the Sundhnúkur crater row.
Likely scenarios
Eruption between Sýlingarfell and Stóra-Skógfell - As occurred on Dec. 18, 2023, and Feb. 8, 2024.
Eruption by Hagafell – As occurred on Jan. 14, 2024.
Eruption inside of the lava barriers around Grindavík