Lava from the eruption 8 Feb. 2024. Photo: Birgir Vilhelm Óskarsson/The Icelandic Institute of Natural History.
Activity has continued at a constant rate
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Iceland Met Office
Updated 29 Feb. at 12:30 UTC
- An eruption could start with very little warning time, even less than 30 minutes.
- The eruption location is most likely in the area between Mt. Stóra-Skógfell and Mt. Hagafell.
- The hazard assessment does not account for weather conditions or other factors that may affect the risk of being within the hazard zones.
- A dike intrusion may occur without resulting in a volcanic eruption.
Model calculations suggest that as of today, about 8.5-9 million cubic metres of magma has accumulated beneath Svartsengi. The rate of inflation has been fairly constant for the past days. In previous developments, the rate of inflation has decreased shortly before an eruption starts.
According to model calculations, approximately 0.5 million cubic metres of magma is accumulated in the Svartsengi reservoir every 24 hours.
Considering precursors of previous volcanic eruptions in the Sundhnúkar crater row, the likelihood of a volcanic eruption increases once the volume of magma reaches 8 – 13 million cubic metres. If magma accumulation continues at the same rate, the amount should reach the upper limit next week.
There remains an increased likelihood of a volcanic eruption in the coming days. The most likely scenario is that a volcanic fissure opens in the area between Mt. Stóra-Skógfell and Mt. Hagafell which could occur with a very short warning time.
The graph shows a comparison of the volume of magma accumulated beneath Svartsengi before it propagates towards Sundhnúkur crater row. The status of the magma volume at 28 Feb. is indicated with red colour. The amount is derived through model calculations based on GPS data and is subject to uncertainties. Changes can vary from day to day, from being small to more prominent changes. The purple line shows the magma volume accumulated before the large diking event beneath Grindavík formed on 10 Nov. 2023.
A new hazard assessment map from IMO was published today and remains unchanged from the previous one. The hazard assessment map is valid until 5 March unless developments in activity call for a re-evaluation. Likely scenarios presented earlier this week also remain unchanged (see news from 26 Feb.).
Please note that although the Iceland Meteorological Office has at this point not increased the hazard level in the unrest area, developments can occur very quickly and without warning. People entering the unrest area need to keep this in mind. The hazard assessment by IMO does not account for weather conditions or other factors which may affect the risk involved when being within a hazardous area. (Click the map to enlarge)
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