Iceland Volcano: No Reduction In Magma Inflow Into The Svartsengi Reservoir -- Iceland Met Office

Created by : Francis Goodwin View profile

From the Civil Defense patrol flight on May 9. No lava splashes are visible in the crater, although smoke continues to pour out of it. (Photo: Civil Defense)From the Civil Defense patrol flight on May 9. No lava splashes are visible in the crater, although smoke continues to pour out of it. (Photo: Civil Defense)

Magma inflow continues into the Svartsengi reservoir and the likely timeframe for the next diking event and/or eruption is the coming weeks/months

Iceland Met Office

Updated 5 July at 17:15 UTC

Since the end of the eruption in Sundhnúks crater row on 22 June, the level of seismicity in the Svartsengi region is still very low with only a few small earthquakes detected daily.

Ground deformation data show that the uplift in the region continues. This is interpreted as continued magma inflow into the Svartsengi reservoir.

Geodetic modelling has been used to estimate the magma inflow rate into the Svartsengi reservoir during periods with no eruptions. In these periods the system is considered “closed” and, as such, the analysis does not account for additional magma inflow that occurs when the system is open during eruptive periods (e.g. the volume of magma that flows through the system and is extruded as lava during eruptions). Therefore, the graph does not reflect the total inflow into the system since November 2023, but only the inflow feeding the reservoir when the system is closed.

The sketch shows the ”closed” system when the magma flows from depth (red arrow) into the Svartsengi reservoir to a shallower level at 4-5 km (orange domain) causing an increase in pressure and measurable ground deformation at the surface.The sketch shows the ”closed” system when the magma flows from depth (red arrow) into the Svartsengi reservoir to a shallower level at 4-5 km (orange domain) causing an increase in pressure and measurable ground deformation at the surface.

Data shows inflow rates between 8 and 10 m3/s until the first eruption in December 2023. Following this, the model indicates that the magma inflow rate at depth has typically been in the region of 4 to 6 m3/s, when accounting for the uncertainties in the results. Considering the uncertainty in the model, the inflow rates since mid-January have been relatively stable. As of today, the inflow rate is assessed to be in line with what has been observed since mid-January with no evidence of a declining trend. Combined analysis of erupted volumes and volume changes within the Svartsengi volcanic system indicates that the overall magma availability is in fact higher.

The graph shows the estimated inflow rate of magma into the Svartsengi reservoir during periods with no eruptions. The grey areas correspond to eruptive periods or diking events. The model calculates magma inflow rate for those periods outside the grey areas (colored horizontal lines). The red line with associated uncertainty (red area) corresponds to the current estimate of magma inflow rate. The letter D stands for Dike intrusion and the star for eruption.The graph shows the estimated inflow rate of magma into the Svartsengi reservoir during periods with no eruptions. The grey areas correspond to eruptive periods or diking events. The model calculates magma inflow rate for those periods outside the grey areas (colored horizontal lines). The red line with associated uncertainty (red area) corresponds to the current estimate of magma inflow rate. The letter D stands for Dike intrusion and the star for eruption.

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