Lava from the eruption 8. February 2024. Photo: Birgir Vilhelm Óskarsson/The Icelandic Institute of Natural History.
Updated hazard assessment according to the development
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Iceland Met Office
Updated 12. February at 16:00 UTC
The Iceland Meteorological Office has updated the hazard assessment according to the development of the eruptive activity. Changes have been made to the hazard assessment for some hazards within zones.
The overall hazard assessment for the area remains unchanged from the last map. There is still considered to be a sinkholes and fault movements area 4 (Grindavík).
The hazard assessment map is valid until Thursday, 15 February, unless changes in activity calls for a re-evaluation. (Click on the map to make it larger)
Updated 12. February at 14:30 UTC
Inflation has started again at Svartsengi after having subsided following the eruption that started 8. February. The inflation rate is about 0.5-1.0 cm/day which is similar to the rates detected before the last eruptions. Magma thus continues to accumulate in the magma reservoir beneath Svartsengi. It is therefore highly likely that the cycle continues in a few weeks with another dyke propagation and a volcanic eruption.
Time series from the GPS station Svartsengi (SENG) since 11th of November 2023 in the north, east and vertical directions (top, middle and bottom images, respectively). The bottom time series show land uplift in millimetres and yesterday's datapoint (11th of February) is shown with a green dot. The red vertical lines are timings of the last three eruptions (18th of December 2023, 14th of January 2024 and 8th of February 2024).
Since noon of 8. February, seismic activity in the area north of Grindavík has been minor, about 50 small earthquakes have been detected, all of which were around or less than M1.0. A small seismic swarm has been ongoing in the western parts of Mt. Fagradalsfjall with about 100 earthquakes detected, mostly M1 events or smaller. Minor swarms in the Fagradalsfjall area have occurred frequently for the past weeks, the depth of the earthquakes is at around 6-8 km.
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