From the Civil Defense patrol flight on May 9. No lava splashes are visible in the crater, although smoke continues to pour out of it. (Photo: Civil Defense)
Strong wind into the night could affect the sensitivity of seismic sensors
24.5.2024
Updated 24. May at 16:00 UTC
Strong wind into the night could affect the sensitivity of seismic sensors.
Deformation data show that land uplift by Svartsengi continues
About 18 million cubic meters of magma have been added to the magma reservoir since 16 March.
Still increased likelihood of another dike propagation and an eruption
Sundhnúkur crater row still the most likely location for a volcanic eruption
Eruption precursor time could be very short
Around 140 earthquakes have been detected in the unrest area in the last two days, all measuring below M2.0. Most of the earthquakes are located either in the area between Mt. Stóra-Skógfell and Mt. Hagafell or to the south of Mt. Þorbjörn. Today fewer earthquakes have been detected in the area compared to previous days. This is due to strong winds that affect the sensitivity of the seismic sensors to measure the very smallest earthquakes. The weather is expected to continue to affect the sensitivity of the seismic sensors into the night but does not affect other sensors used for monitoring the area.
Deformation data shows steadfast and continued uplift in the Svartsengi region, indicating that magma continues to accumulate there at depth. Model calculations estimate ~18 million cubic meters have accumulated there since March 16th when the last eruption began. The total volume of magma accumulated is more now than in recent previous events. This means that pressure in the system continues to increase and therefore it can be concluded that there are still considerable odds of a new dike propagation followed by an eruption. The timing of when this would happen is however quite uncertain, but the precursor could be very short.
The graph shows the estimated amount of magma that has accumulated under Svartsengi between the volcanic eruptions or magma intrusions that have occurred since November 2023. The slight changes visible on the graph are within the margin of error and have been observed before during the magma accumulation process, indicating that magma production has remained stable and no significant changes have occurred in magma flow under Svartsengi since November 2023.
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