From the Civil Defense patrol flight on May 9. No lava splashes are visible in the crater, although smoke continues to pour out of it. (Photo: Civil Defense)
About 16 million cubic meters of magma have recharged the magma reservoir since 16 March
Iceland Met Office
Updated 16 May at 13:00 UTC
Magma accumulation beneath Svarstengi continues at a steady rate.
About 16 million cubic meters of magma have been added to the magma reservoir.
Increased probability of another dyke propagation and/or a volcanic eruption in the coming days.
Sundhnúkur crater row is the most likely location of another eruption.
An eruption could start with very little (or no) warning time
Around 80 earthquakes were detected in the area around the dyke intrusion yesterday, 15 May, most of them below M1.0. This is similar to the seismic activity that has been detected in recent days, but about 50 to 80 earthquakes have been measured per day, most of them occurring in two main areas, between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell and south of Þorbjörn. Signs of new magma migration from the Svartsengi reservoir to the previous diking area, may comprise localized small seismic swarms in and around the intrusion, rapid changes in deformation and pressure changes in boreholes in the area.
Magma accumulation continues beneath Svartsengi and land uplift is ongoing at the same rate as that observed since early April 2024. Therefore, there is still an increased probability that in the coming days a new dyke intrusion and another volcanic eruption in the Sundhnúkur crater row could occur.
Prior to previous dyke intrusions and volcanic eruptions, about 8 to 13 million cubic meters had been added to the magma reservoir before the reservoir failed and magma flowed from this to the Sundhnúkur crater row. Now, the amount of magma that has been added is more than the upper limit, as a total of ~16 million cubic meters have been added to the reservoir since 16 March, when the last eruption started.
Lesson learned from the Krafla Fires was that as the number of dyke propagations increases, more pressure is needed to trigger them. Therefore, it must be considered likely that magma will once again flow from the Svartsengi magma reservoir to the Sundhnúkur crater row, but there is an uncertainty as to when sufficient pressure will be reached to trigger a new dyke propagation and/or eruption.
The graph shows the estimated amount of magma that has been recharged to the Svartsengi magma reservoir between the eruptions or dyke propagations that have occurred since November 2023. In previous dyking events and eruptions, about 8 to 13 million cubic meters has been added to the magma reservoir before the reservoir failed and magma flowed into the Sundhnúkur crater row. Now the magma amount has surpassed the upper limit, as ~16 million cubic meters have been added to the reservoir since 16 March, when the last eruption began.
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