Lava from the eruption 8 Feb. 2024. Photo: Birgir Vilhelm Óskarsson/The Icelandic Institute of Natural History.
Model calculations suggest that -- by the end of February or early March -- magma accumulation will reach a level similar to that before the last eruption.
An updated hazard map has been published.
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Iceland Met Office
Updated 15. February at 16:00 UTC
Land uplift at the Svartsengi area continues at similar trends and rates as those detected after dyke propagations from there.
Model calculations based on GPS data suggest that magma accumulation from the end of the eruption 9 Feb. until yesterday, 14 Feb., is about 2 million m3. It was estimated that when the eruption began on 8 Feb., about 10 million m3 of magma propagated from Svartsengi towards Sundhnúkur crater row.
If magma accumulation continues at the same rate, a total of 10 million m3 will accumulate by the end of February or early March, by which time the likelihood of dyke propagation and volcanic eruption will increase significantly. These model calculations are based on GPS data but will be updated when new satellite data comes in.
Seismic activity in the western parts of Mt. Fagradalsfjall continues with about 80 small earthquakes of magnitudes 1.5 or smaller detected since 12 Feb. The depth of the earthquakes under the western part of Mt. Fagradalsfjall is at 6-8 km. The area remains closely monitored but at the moment deformation data do not show signs of magma accumulation.
The Iceland Met Office has published an updated hazard map, valid until 22 Feb. unless developments call for a re-evaluation. The main changes are that likelihood of eruptive vents opening has decreased in all Zones. Likelihood of sinkholes and fault movements are still considered high in Zone 4 (Grindavík). Please note that the hazard zones are active, and changes can occur with short notice. Furthermore, hazards can be present outside of the specified hazard zones, such as the faults that formed on the 10th of November 2023 west of Grindavík (see faults on map).
The Iceland Met Office has published an updated hazard map, valid until 22 Feb. unless developments call for a re-evaluation. (Click on the map to make it larger)
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