Lava flows from a fissure near Grindavik, Iceland, on Jan. 14, 2024. Iceland Department of Civil Protection
The risk associated with fissures within Grindavík remains very high in the updated hazard assessment
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Iceland Met Office
Updated 25 Jan. 17:30 UTC
Inflation continues at Svartsengi. Over the past few days, the land has been rising at a rate of approximately 8 mm per day, slightly exceeding the recorded rate of uplift before the eruption on Jan. 14th.
At this point, it is challenging to determine exactly how much magma has accumulated beneath Svartsengi since the eruption ended on Jan. 16th. Most likely, the timeframe required to reach the same volume of magma as before the last eruption will be on the order of weeks, not days. Computational models are being refined to obtain a clearer assessment of the status of magma accumulation.
Low levels of seismic activity persist and are mostly concentrated around Hagafell. The current seismic activity aligns with that observed in the area following the previous eruption.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office has issued an updated hazard assessment map. The main changes include reducing the overall hazard level for Grindavík to orange (significant risk).
It should be noted that, although the overall hazard level for Grindavík has been reduced by one level, the risk associated with fissures remains very high. The current risk is now referred to as "subsidence into a fissure," describing the danger that may be present where fissures are hidden beneath unstable surfaces that could collapse and develop sinkholes.
The hazard assessment related to fissure development within Grindavík has decreased. Evaluations are underway to determine if there is a risk of existing fissures expanding or new fissures forming. GPS data have exhibited very little movement within Grindavík the past few days, reducing the assessed risk compared to before. The risk due to sinkholes overlying fissures is now considered significant.
(Click on the picture to see it larger). Increased risk in the area due to the eruption near Hagafell on Jan. 16th and land uplift near Svartsengi. Conditions within and outside the hazard areas can change with little warning. Risk assessment is focused solely within these areas, but the danger may extend beyond them. The overall hazard assessment for each area is based on a combined evaluation of 7 types of hazards present or possible within the regions. The color of each area reflects the overall risk within those boundaries.